Cognitive Dissonance

Two things happened this week, that are causing me confusion and doubt.

1. Ralph Nader announced that he is running again for President. When asked if this might not harm the chances of the Democratic candidate (as it is widely believed it did in the close election of 2000), Nader's response was something like: if the Democrats can't win in 2008, they should fold up their tents and disband. Part of me agrees with this.

2. An LATimes poll came out showing McCain leading both Obama and Clinton in head-to-head matchups. Part of me agrees with this.

I find these both hard to believe...and yet believable...both at the same time.

When I think about it further, these are the things that lead me to believe that McCain could win:

• Americans want a reasurring father figure, especially in a time of uncertainty.
• The war continues, and McCain will emphasize his undoubted and personal experience with war.
• The war becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy...we got into a war we don't need, and now we need a war hero to make sure it goes our way (continues with no end in sight).

Concerns about Arab Leaders??

Writing in the NYTime OpEd page today, David Brooks claims that if we pull out of Iraq under a Democratic president, "There would be private but powerful opposition from Arab leaders, who would fear a return to 2006 chaos". I suspect he is correct in this.

However, this predicted opposition from Arab leaders carries little weight with this American. In my opinion, many Arab leaders have been sheltered and funded for too long, under the presence of American forces and arms supplies and oil revenue. The United States is doing too much of the heavy lifting in the Middle East. It's time for the locals, who have lots of our cash from their oil, to step up to the realities and needs of their region. If they do, it will be good for them and good for America. If they don't, then we will both suffer the consequences. But I doubt these consequences could be as bad (or worse) for us than the current situation we are in.

The Republican Strategy: Eternal War

It's now clear what the Republican campaign theme will be this year.

A couple of weeks ago, when asked what was the major issue facing America, John McCain said it was "Islamo-fascism", and that it would be the dominant issue for the whole 21st century. Thus, at least 92 more years of war in Iraq, Afghanistan, and god-only-knows where else.

On February 7, as reported in the NYTimes, Mitt Romney addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference, and told them he was suspending his campaign. "Frankly, in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror..." and "And because I love America, in this time of war, I feel I have to now stand aside, for our party and for our country".

This is the Republican mind-set. War is the answer. And if you have not won yet, then keep on trying. And, in the process, enrich the military-industrial complex that is a major funder the party.

I hope that the Democratic candidate will address this issue directly in the debates to come this year, and present the electorate with a clear choice of alternatives.

Moral Leadership

There is a lot of talk about the United States somehow regaining its moral stature in the world. This is the wrong emphasis. We should not change our ways in order to regain or gain the moral approval of the rest of the world. We should change our ways in order to do the right thing. If we do the right things, we may regain the respect of other nations and peoples. If we are generous with our wealth, if we support democracy and freedom and justice, we may regain the admiration of the world. If we attempt to understand others, and hear their voices, and act in ways that promote peace, we may regain what was lost.

The World's Policeman

Last night, I heard a quote by Senator McCain to the effect that Americans had to realize that the price of being the sole superpower was that America had to be the policeman for the world.

This quote succinctly captures a key issue which has received little attention in the presidential campaign so far, but is very important for Americans to understand and consider. This seems to be a central point of the Republican world-view, and has resulted in the invasion of Iraq and all its negative consequences. It is behind the current talk of war with Iran. The assumption that it is up to America, alone if necessary, to enforce something on a world-wide basis. Exactly what law or principle is to be enforced is not clear.

But what is clear is that America has great military power, and should feel positively inclined to use it to "enforce" its beliefs on others. In effect, America becomes the sole and ultimate judge, jury and executioner….of something.

Let's consider the case of Iran, and its reported nuclear ambitions. Certainly, for Iran to have nuclear weapons is not a positive thing for most of the rest of the world. But, the same could be said about almost any other country, including America. Is it the sole responsibility of America to prevent this from happening? To listen to much of the rhetoric, this is the assumption. But, there are several large, powerful nations that are much closer to Iran than is the US…China, India, and Russia come to mind. Each of these nations probably have more influence over Iran than the US at this time. And each of these nations has reason to be concerned about a nuclear Iran.

Is it up to us to "stop Iran"? I for one don't think that it is. It's time for the US to stop thinking that it should and can do all the heavy lifting. I am not interested in Americans dying in Iran, while the rest of the world stands by and watches. It's not the end of the world if one more country gets nuclear weapons. The need for nuclear disarmament is real, but it has to be done in a comprehensive way.

We Americans need to take a long, hard look at ourselves.

• Why do we have such a large military?
• Why do we spend more than all the rest of the world on our military?
• What are we doing to the rest of the world when we use our military, or its threat, to attain goals we often cloak with "altruistic" motives?

I hope the Democratic nominee will have the guts to take McCain on about this issue, and to educate Americans on it.